Ukraine’s counteroffensive forms, but the main test is still to come. After a week of fierce battle, Kyiv’s counteroffensive will be tested with Ukrainian troops far from Russia’s main defense line and the bulk of forces intended for the drive still on standby.
Ukraine began the major part of its long-awaited campaign last week in two southeastern front zones, retaking seven villages but losing Western infantry fighting equipment and tanks.
“On both sides, a lot of it’s going to come down to attrition,” said Rob Lee, a senior fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute and one of the satellite and photographic analysts who documented losses on both sides.
“The risk for them (the Ukrainians) is that before they get to that (Russian) defensive line, they take too much attrition and it’ll be too tough to breach and exploit it.”
President Volodymyr Zelenskiy believes Western battle tanks and armored vehicles can save Ukrainian soldiers.
From western Russia to seized Crimea on the Black Sea, Russia has built thousands of defensive positions, including minefields, anti-tank ditches, concrete “dragon’s teeth” obstacles, and trenches.
Reuters’ April satellite images showed that Kyiv’s deployments are disproportionately concentrated in the strategically critical south. Kyiv may attempt to cut Russia’s land bridge to Crimea and split the Kremlin’s soldiers.
Military analysts said Ukraine, which has most of its counteroffensive forces in the wings, can watch where Moscow deploys troops to strengthen its defenses and strike in weaker areas, including the east.
“Ukraine’s got choices,” said International Institute for Strategic Studies ground warfare senior expert Ben Barry.
It will do its hardest to achieve operational and tactical surprises, not strategic ones. Last autumn, they used hiding, camouflage, deception, and misinformation well.”
Lee believes Moscow’s southern plan is to maximize Ukrainian deaths before Kyiv can reach the main Russian defense line 10-15 km (6-9 miles) away.
“There’s no point in (them) fighting to the death or risking encirclement,” he said.
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