Turkey will maintain strong Russia connections regardless of the election outcome. The NATO member who wins Turkey’s elections this month is anticipated to continue amicable relations with Russia after many years of major foreign policy upheaval.

Analysts claimed Turkey’s terrible economic situation drove President Tayyip Erdogan to restore frayed relations with nations like the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Israel, which he had previously harshly condemned.

Russia’s war against Ukraine and its impact on the global economy showed that this was not the time for Ankara to choose foreign wars, as Erdogan had done for two decades.

Just 12 years after the Syrian war began, Egypt and Syria are also reconciling.

“The U-turns were out of necessity, rather than a deliberate choice,” said Fatih Ceylan, chairman of the Ankara Policy Centre, a think tank in the Turkish capital.

He said Russia was a neighbor Turkey had to cooperate with.

Since February 24, 2022, Russia invaded Ukraine; Turkey has balanced diplomatically. Ankara is close to Moscow and Kyiv, its Black Sea neighbors, and opposes Western sanctions on Russia. It dispatched armed drones to Ukraine and criticized Russia’s incursion.

“Turkey cannot put Russia aside, it is a powerful neighbour and we have some strong economic and commercial ties that are directly related to our national interests,” Ceylan said.

Last month, Putin and Erdogan virtually inaugurated Rosatom’s first nuclear power project in Turkey.

Putin dubbed it a landmark initiative that “strengthened the multi-faceted partnership between our two states.” On May 14, Turkey held its most significant presidential and legislative elections. Due to inflation, Erdogan has fallen behind his major opponent Kemal Kilicdaroglu in recent surveys.

“Any extended foreign policy crisis might further harm Turkey’s economy,” warned Istanbul’s Turkish-German University international relations expert Birgul Demirtas.

Ahmet Kamil Erozan, deputy chairman of the IYI party, part of a six-party opposition alliance, said Moscow fears a change in administration will make Turkey more pro-Western.

“We need to engage in stock taking with both Russia and the United States on the first day of the job because Erdogan’s foreign policy was personal relationship-based,” said Erdogan, one of the opposition’s foreign minister candidates.

Erozan, a veteran diplomat, said that if the opposition wins, Turkey will reduce its energy dependence on Russia from 50% to 30%.

Turkey and the U.N. reached a deal last year to resume Ukrainian grain shipments from Black Sea ports.

Ceylan, a former NATO envoy, said Turkey’s balanced stance on Russia would not alter if Kilicdaroglu replaces Erdogan.

Tourism, gas, grain, and agricultural commerce link Turkey to Russia.

Kilicdaroglu promised a “sound and credible continuation of Turkey-Russia relations” if elected president.

The opposition alliance has vowed to turn back many of Erdogan’s actions and prioritize dialogue over Turkey’s combative foreign policy of the previous decade.

The alliance wants the foreign ministry back in charge and trust-based ties with the U.S. and Russia.

Regional adversaries have applauded Turkey’s foreign policy moves, but Ankara’s relationship with the E.U. remains difficult.

Erdogan said the opposition alliance supported unlimited E.U. admission and E.U. ideals of human rights, democracy, and the rule of law.

Demirtas stated the opposition wants to return to Western-oriented foreign policy.

“However, their emphasis on equality in Turkey’s international relations with all international actors, including the E.U., U.S. and Russia should be noted,” she said.