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Matthias Heck, Moody’s industry analyst, estimates that electric vehicles would have attained that market share after 2035 without these rules. He said the EPA’s goals are achievable, but they require significant investment. Heck noted that the idea is still in draft form and may change before being finalized.

The coming decade will see changes to charging infrastructure and automobiles. Consumers will prefer electric vehicles as battery technology improves and prices drop. Government incentives like the new Inflation Reduction Act will also help.

Chris Harto, Consumer Reports’ mobility and energy policy specialist, advises remembering that electric vehicles will change in nearly a decade. Even if EV market share reaches two-thirds, EVs won’t flood American highways overnight, he claimed. He estimated 80% of cars on the road in 2032 will be gas-powered, but buying one will be different.

We’re talking about past cost parity, so it’ll be the same or cheaper than a gas-powered automobile, he said.

Harto added that driving ranges will grow, quick charging will be easier, and owners will save money. Moody’s Heck estimated that next-generation EV batteries within a few years will charge 30% faster and go 30% further.

Harto stated that when combined with enhanced charging networks, electric cars won’t be hard to sell to buyers searching for the best vehicle at a decent price.

More EV cars will be available by 2032. According to JD Power vice president of the electric vehicle practice Elizabeth Krear, 40% of gas vehicle models in the US have “EV equivalents” now. Electric market share is 8.5%.

Krear did not speculate on EVs taking over two-thirds of the US vehicle market by 2032. Within three years, Krear predicts “EV equivalents” for 75% of American vehicle purchases and market share to quadruple to 27% by 2026. Before 2032, EV market share in California is predicted to reach two-thirds due to its popularity and variety.

Mercedes-Benz employees work on internal combustion engine vehicles in Factory 56 at the Merecdes-Benz facility in Sindelfingen, Germany. Factory 56 produces all Mercedes-Benz and Mercedes-Maybach S-Class variations, including the EQS.
European Union planned to outlaw ICE cars. Corey Cantor, an analyst with Bloomberg NEF, reports that California is on track to sell solely completely electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles by 2035, despite Germany’s abrupt change of heart. By 2032, California should have over 80% of the plug-in car market, including hybrids, and its size is a major factor in the US vehicle market.

Is California’s effect on the whole country truly propelling it forward to maybe a year earlier than without California?

Cantor said two-thirds EV market dominance by 2032 isn’t guaranteed but achievable.

Edmunds.com industry expert Ivan Drury said more automakers entering the EV market will help. Brand loyalty is common among car buyers.

“Not everyone is willing to jump ship just because it’s an EV or has X-Y-Z technology,” Drury said. “I think when you have something like Toyota, definitely a loyal consumer base, they don’t want anything else.”

Toyota provides one electric model in the US, the BZ4X SUV, although more are planned. Honda, another popular Japanese automaker, is building EV plants in Ohio. Honda plans to launch an EV next year. GM will release several EV vehicles in the next year or two.

Peter Valdes-Dapens drove an electric car 950 miles and determined America needs more chargers, not better batteries.
Electric automobiles don’t require better batteries. America needs better charging networks
Drury believes GM alone will test the American market’s EV readiness in the next years. That automaker, which will sell only electric passenger vehicles by 2035, will sell models in various market groups and price points.

On its website, the Alliance for Automotive Innovation, which represents most major US automakers, cautioned about the ambitions and requested government assistance.

“[A] lot has to go right for this massive – and unprecedented – change in our automotive market and industrial base to succeed,” the group stated.

Cantor predicted that automakers more behind GM will eventually have to go electric for economic reasons. Investing in internal combustion car development and production will no longer be profitable once consumers embrace EVs.