The jump in the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note, which briefly surpassed 5% overnight for the first time since 2007, helped push the dollar to within a hair’s breadth of the carefully monitored 150 yen mark on Friday.
The benchmark 10-year yield, last at 4.9456%, has increased by more than 30 basis points (bps) this week due to escalating fiscal concerns in the United States and growing predictions that the Federal Reserve will hold interest rates higher for longer.
The Fed’s withdrawal from the market as a price-sensitive buyer caused the price to rise. The need from abroad has also decreased. It’s a typical supply and demand issue, said Brian Jacobsen, chief economist at Annex Wealth Management, when coupled with the unexpectedly high issuance from the deficit.
That maintained pressure on the yen, which last traded at 149.85 to the dollar, not far from the psychological level of 150, which some traders said may prompt a government intervention from Japan, as it did last year.
The dollar/yen exchange rate often follows fluctuations in long-term Treasury rates quite closely, especially for the 10-year maturity.
Similarly, the pound fell by 0.03% to $1.2135, which was still above the $1.2093 two-week low it reached on Thursday. The U.S. dollar increased somewhat in the wider currency market thanks to rising Treasury rates.
The dollar index increased 0.07% to 106.28, but it was still expected to lose 0.3% of its value weekly. In a speech that was closely watched on Thursday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said that despite rising market interest rates, the need for the central bank to intervene could be lessened because of the strength of the U.S. economy and the country’s ongoing labor shortages.
According to Ray Attrill, director of FX strategy at National Australia Bank, “the market seems to be more at ease with the view that the Fed is going to pause, or at least pass on a rate rise, out of the Oct. 31-Nov. 1 meeting.”
“Obviously, he’s still not shutting the door to the prospect of higher rates, but there were a few words in Powell’s speech that I do think represent a little bit of a softening in the tone.”
According to the CME FedWatch tool, the money markets are nearly certain that the Fed will maintain interest rates at its forthcoming policy meeting, down from a 94% likelihood a week ago.
The Australian dollar fell 0.21% to end the day at $0.63155, while the euro dipped 0.06% to $1.0575.
After falling to a low of $0.5816 on Thursday, more than 11 months ago, the New Zealand dollar dipped 0.35% to $0.5829 on Friday. The statistics earlier this week showing that New Zealand’s consumer inflation dropped to a two-year low in the third quarter put more pressure on the kiwi, setting it on pace for a weekly loss of around 1%.
Data released on Friday in Asia showed Japan’s core inflation in September slipped below the 3% barrier for the first time in over a year but remained over the central bank’s target of 2%. However, this had little impact on the yen.
Amid indications that certain sectors of the shaky economy may be gradually regaining strength, China held its benchmark lending rates constant at the monthly fixing on Friday, in line with market forecasts.
Specifically, before year’s end, “I expect some more monetary easing going forward,” said Carol Kong, a Commonwealth Bank of Australia currency analyst. “Even though we got that stronger-than-expected data dump and GDP earlier in the week, I think the Chinese economy is still pretty fragile underneath the surface.”
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