As investors awaited corporate results and macro data this week to assess the global economy, stocks dipped, and the currency rose on Tuesday.
Last week’s U.S. bank profits beat expectations, and this week Big Tech and several U.S. consumer companies report.
Refinitiv expects first-quarter S&P 500 profits growth of -4.7%.
This year, Microsoft and Alphabet (GOOGL.O), S&P drivers, report after Tuesday’s close. Futures declined 0.5%.
“It’s uncertain. “People still don’t know how much bank lending has been impacted by recent developments… (or) when inflation will durably peak,” said Prashant Bhayani, chief investment officer Asia, BNP Paribas Wealth Management.
Bhayani expressed concern that the recent U.S. and Swiss financial turbulence may reveal further weaknesses.
After reporting a $100 billion drop in deposits in the first quarter, mid-tier lender First Republic Bank (FRC.N) shares fell more than 20% on Monday.
As it prepares to absorb Credit Suisse (CSGN.S), Swiss bank UBS (UBSG.S) saw its quarterly earnings collapse by 52%. UBS set aside $665 million to cover the expenses of faulty mortgages that contributed to the global financial crisis 15 years earlier, which drove the earnings dip.
The STOXX 600 index (.STOXX) declined 0.5% as UBS shares plunged 4%.
March’s financial sector turbulence raised concerns about central banks’ interest rate hikes.
Last month, weak lenders were targeted, and concerns about another loan crisis arose due to rising inflation and rates.
Given the likelihood of a U.S. recession, investors hope corporate profits and statistics will reveal the true state of the economy.
In recent months, Morgan Stanley Asset Management’s chief investment officer, fixed income, Eric Stein, has seen a tug of war over U.S. interest rates.
“Has the Fed largely done its job on inflation and we’re simply waiting for the consequences and the market direction takes care of itself? Should the Fed do more?” he stated.
“Maybe they (increase) one more time in May, then I think the Fed is done. Is a recession coming? He predicted rate reduction.
Short-dated Treasury rates were already above longer-dated ones in the U.S. government bond market, indicating investors expected a recession.
Three-month bill rates have skyrocketed this week, maturing around the debt ceiling deadline.
This week, the House will vote on a Republican-led debt and spending package. Investors fear a catastrophic impasse, as three-month T-bill rates are 173 basis points higher than 10-year levels, the most in 40 years.
Benchmark 10-year notes fell six bps to 3.4485%.
Euro and pound losses of 0.1% helped the dollar index rise 0.2%.
On Tuesday, six of the world’s top central banks announced they would perform weekly operations to maintain dollar flow, indicating that concerns about financial system stability had subsided.
Oil rebounded Monday. Brent increased 0.2% to $82.88 a barrel, while U.S. futures rose 0.15% to $78.89.
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