Saudi Arabia’s unpredictable crown prince is working to realign Middle East dynamics, connecting with old rivals and coordinating OPEC oil cutbacks like Sunday’s, which surprised the global market.
Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman, known as MbS, has shown he is willing to pursue Saudi goals without U.S. assistance, whether reestablishing connections with Iran or withholding supply from the oil market and angering customers.
MbS’s Vision 2030, into which he has put hundreds of billions of dollars, is intended to expand the conservative kingdom to industry and tourism despite mounting regional competition.
After the disastrous strikes on Saudi Aramco’s oil facilities in 2019, Riyadh questioned U.S. security pledges to the area. Israeli attacks on Iranian sites accelerated the strategic change, analysts believe.
They think the kingdom wants to dodge the crossfire.
“Saudi Arabia is transitioning from disengagement to engagement to focus on Vision 2030,” stated Saudi analyst Abdullah Sager.
Instead of relying solely on the U.S., the monarchy has reestablished contacts with Iran and Syria to develop regional allies.
Three sources claimed Saudi Arabia planned to invite Syrian President Bashar al-Assad to an Arab League meeting it is holding in May, ending Syria’s regional isolation.
The country also joined the China-led Shanghai Cooperation Organization, signaling a long-term alliance with Beijing over the U.S.
Saudi officials stated the U.S. and China are vital allies.
“We aim to avoid any superpower conflict. We are a regional and global economic force, but not a superpower, “an unnamed official added.
On Monday, White House national security secretary John Kirby said Riyadh remained a strategic partner for Washington despite disagreements. He claimed Washington and Riyadh are discussing security issues.
Oil policies reflect Riyadh’s aggressiveness.
OPEC+, led by Saudi Arabia and includes Russia, lowered output by 1.16 million barrels per day (bpd) on Sunday, garnering U.S. displeasure.
The Gulf Research Center, a Saudi research group, said the OPEC cutbacks indicate big oil producers can defy U.S.-Western pressure and act in their national interests.
“Saudi First oil dominates. When markets are tight, producers gain geopolitical power and earn more “said Rice Baker Institute research fellow Jim Krane.
After years of intense enmity that fueled Middle East violence, Riyadh and Iran signed a pact to restore diplomatic relations, mediated by China.
Elisabeth Kendall, a Middle East scholar at Cambridge’s Girton College, suggested that Israel-Iran tensions prompted the unexpected U-turn.
“Saudi undoubtedly thinks that by mending ties with Iran, it will avoid being caught up in another regional confrontation, so minimizing the chance of another direct Iranian strike on its infrastructure, such as the damaging 2019 Aramco attacks,” Kendall added. Iran denounced.
The Syrian defense ministry reported Israeli air attacks on Iranian positions on Sunday. In addition, western intelligence agencies reported hitting Iranian-staffed air sites in central Syria.
The new strike on Iranian military sites in Syria, Tehran’s key partner, increased the prospect of a wider regional conflict that might put U.S. Gulf allies at risk.
Riyadh wants to de-escalate with Tehran and diversify its security partners after Iranian-backed Yemeni Houthi rebels bombed Saudi oil stations and a UAE fuel storage.
Bilal Saab, Director of the Defence and Security Program at the Middle East Institute in Washington, said there has never been any meaningful debate between the U.S. administration and the Saudis on the parameters under which Washington would defend Saudi Arabia if it were attacked.
“Saudi Arabia wants to avoid a US-Iran war. They doubt Washington’s protection, “Saab added.
Washington worries about Riyadh’s developing connections with Beijing, but it maintains China’s global influence won’t affect its Middle East policies.
Shadi Hamid of the Brookings Institute in Washington agreed with Saudi Arabia’s assessment that the U.S. is withdrawing from the area.
“The crown prince has opted to hedge his bets, both as a concession to reality and as a tactic of forcing the U.S. to pay greater attention to its security concerns,” Hamid said.
“The U.S. is upset but hasn’t reacted, which has empowered Saudi Arabia to continue extending its connection with America’s biggest rivals.”
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