The Russian central bank needs months to ensure CPI falls before rate cuts. According to statements made by Elvira Nabiullina, the governor of the Russian Central Bank, to RBC media on Sunday, the bank would require two to three months to ensure that inflation is consistently decreasing before making any decision about interest rate reductions.
Earlier in December, the central bank increased its benchmark interest rate by 100 basis points to 16%. This was the fifth consecutive meeting in which the rate was hiked, which was done in response to persistent inflation. The central bank also indicated that its tightening cycle was almost over.
It was not yet obvious when exactly the regulator would begin reducing rates, according to Nabiullina, who stated that it was not yet evident.
“We really need to make sure that inflation is steadily decreasing and that these are not one-off factors that can affect the rate of price growth in a particular month,” said the economist.
According to Nabiullina, the bank looked at various indicators, but the ones that “characterize the stability of inflation” were the most important.
“This will take two or three months or more; it depends on how much the wide range of indicators that characterize sustainable inflation declines,” explained the economist.
On February 16, the bank will next get together to determine its benchmark rate. Additionally, the governor stated that the United States Federal Reserve should have begun tightening monetary policy sooner than July when the cycle of rate hikes began.
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