On Monday, British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak is set to reveal a new arrangement on post-Brexit trade regulations for Northern Ireland, betting that improved EU relations are worth party division.
Sunak, in charge for barely four months, is taking a gamble that he can find a solution to strengthen relations with Brussels and the US without angering the Brexit-supporting element of his party.
On Monday, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen will meet Sunak for final negotiations and visit King Charles, which has generated criticism because the monarch should not be involved in politics.
The pact aims to ease concerns over the British province’s open border with EU member Ireland after Brexit in 2020. Nevertheless, whether it would break political gridlock in Northern Ireland and satisfy British critics is unknown.
“During the last few months, rigorous discussions with the EU – conducted by British ministers – have achieved positive, constructive progress,” Sunak’s office stated.
The new deal is anticipated to simplify physical inspections on products traveling from Britain to Northern Ireland and give the British province a vote over the EU laws it must apply during Britain’s difficult withdrawal from the bloc.
London might adopt tax and state assistance restrictions.
Its success may depend on if the DUP ends its boycott of Northern Ireland’s power-sharing agreements. They underpinned a 1998 peace pact that halted three decades of sectarian conflict in the British colony.
Suppose Sunak can gain approval for the pact. In that case, he can move past his most divisive issue and boost his Conservative Party while aiming to beat the opposition Labour Party, which is ahead in opinion surveys, before a national election scheduled in 2024.
If Sunak fails, the eurosceptic side of his Conservative Party may defect, recreating the ideological tensions that have paralyzed the government since the 2016 Brexit vote.
Sunak could have left the Northern Ireland issue unsolved. Still, London and Belfast officials say he was pushed to move ahead of the 25th anniversary of the Good Friday Agreement, which might include a visit by U.S. President Joe Biden.
The province’s standoff worries Biden, who is proud of his Irish heritage.
Sunak hopes a favorable resolution will boost EU collaboration in areas beyond Northern Ireland, such as financial services regulation, scientific research, and preventing small boat migrants from crossing the Channel.
Britain agreed to the Northern Ireland protocol with Brussels to prevent political inspections at the 500-km (310-mile) land border with Ireland as part of its withdrawal deal.
Yet, keeping Northern Ireland in the EU’s single market for goods established a border for some British goods. Northern Ireland was likewise subject to EU laws while not being a member.
Unionists are furious that the protocol weakens Northern Ireland’s role in the UK.
The DUP and pro-Brexit Tory parliamentarians in the European Research Group have stated they will review any new deal before making a decision, which could take days.
One Conservative legislator said he did not expect a parliamentary vote this week because top party officials indicate Sunak wants to give people time to study the terms. If his opponents have time to organize, that might be hazardous.
Former prime minister Boris Johnson may be important in the coming weeks.
Johnson negotiated the initial protocol to gain a bigger trade agreement with the bloc, then said London should break its Northern Ireland commitments.
“From what I’ve heard, he’s (Sunak) done very well, but I’m not convinced that he’s achieved the purpose of getting the DUP back into power sharing, which is the essential premise of it,” former Tory minister Jacob Rees-Mogg told ITV.
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