Oil was slightly higher as OPEC+ awaited, and a Black Sea storm disrupted supply. Wednesday saw a little oil price increase as investors became more cautious in anticipation of an important meeting between OPEC and other nations to decide on the output policy for the coming months. Additionally, a Black Sea storm that disrupted supply gave prices a boost.

Futures contracts for Brent crude rose by three cents, reaching $81.71 a barrel at 06:25 GMT. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures in the United States closed at $76.58 a barrel, representing a gain of 17 cents, or 0.2%.

Both benchmarks saw a rise of almost two percent on Tuesday due to the probability that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, including Russia, could prolong or deepen supply cutbacks. Additionally, worries regarding Kazakh oil output and a weaker U.S. currency contributed to the increase.

As a result of concerns over the disruption of supply from Kazakhstan, investors covered short positions before the OPEC+ meeting, according to Hiroyuki Kikukawa, president of N.S. Trading, a unit of Nissan Securities.

“All eyes are on OPEC+ policy and demand outlook toward the end of this year, but WTI is expected to hover around $76, with a range of $5 each above and below, for a while unless OPEC+ significantly expands production cuts,” said the economist.

Following a postponement of the meeting initially scheduled for November 26, OPEC+ plans to have an online ministerial meeting on Thursday to discuss output objectives until 2024.

According to four sources inside OPEC+, the negotiations will be challenging, and a rollover of the previous deal will probably be implemented rather than more significant production cutbacks.

“We cannot rule out the risk that the meeting is further delayed, which would likely put some downward pressure on oil prices,” wrote Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey, analysts from ING Bank, in a letter to clients. “If they (OPEC+) fail to come to a preliminary deal, we cannot rule out the risk that the meeting is further delayed.”

The strategy of OPEC and its allies will significantly impact the prognosis for the oil market in 2024. A two-week high was reached by the premium on front-month loading Brent futures compared to those loading in six months, indicating a growing concern about supply deficiencies in the long run.

As a result of a significant storm in the Black Sea area, oil shipments from Kazakhstan and Russia have been affected by up to 2 million barrels per day (bpd), according to data from port agents and authorities from the state. This has fueled fears about a short-term shortage of supplies.

According to the Kazakh Energy Ministry, Kazakhstan’s significant oilfields have reduced their total daily oil output by 56% since November 27.

Additionally, the weakening of the currency and a decrease in crude oil stocks in the United States supported the oil market.

As predictions continue to grow that the Federal Reserve may begin cutting interest rates by the beginning of the following year, the dollar continued to wallow at a three-month low against its main economic counterparts on Wednesday. Generally speaking, a lower dollar benefits oil prices since it makes oil more affordable for individuals who own foreign currencies.

In the meantime, according to market sources who cited data from the American Petroleum Institute, crude oil stocks in the United States fell by 817,000 barrels over the previous week. Reuters surveyed eight analysts, and their average estimate was that oil stockpiles decreased by around 900,000 barrels in the week leading up to November 24. On Wednesday, the U.S. government is expected to release its weekly inventory figures.