Following a session in which oil prices fell to their lowest points in more than three months, worries about declining demand in the two countries that use the most oil globally—China and the United States—caused the oil price to struggle on Wednesday.
By 06:36 GMT, U.S. oil prices fell 2 cents to $77.35 a barrel, while Brent crude futures increased by 15 cents to $81.76 a barrel. On Tuesday, both fell to their lowest level since July 24.
Analysts from ING bank Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey said in a letter to customers that “the market is clearly less concerned about the potential for Middle Eastern supply disruptions and is instead focused on an easing in the balance,” alluding to a loosening of the tight oil supply circumstances.
Market sources said late on Tuesday that U.S. crude oil stockpiles increased by about 12 million barrels last week, citing data from the American Petroleum Institute. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) will release weekly inventory data until November 13.
The EIA predicted on Tuesday that while consumption will decline, crude oil output in the US will increase this year by a little less than anticipated. The EIA has reversed its prior projection of a 100,000 bpd gain in petroleum consumption and now projects a 300,000 bpd decline in national petroleum consumption this year.
In addition, the agency predicted that when U.S. sanctions are lifted by the end of 2024, Venezuela’s crude oil output will rise by fewer than 200,000 barrels per day (bpd) to an average of 900,000 bpd.
Goldman Sachs analysts calculated that seaborne net oil exports by six OPEC members, who announced cumulative production cutbacks totaling 2 million barrels-per-day (bpd) since April 2023, are at just 0.6 million bpd below April levels, further easing fears about a limited supply of oil. Data from China, the largest importer of crude oil globally, has also cast doubt on the prognosis for demand.
The second-biggest economy in the world saw substantial rises in crude oil imports in October. Still, the country’s overall exports of goods and services shrank more quickly than anticipated, raising concerns about a slowdown in global demand.
A slight rebound in the value of the US dollar (U.S.XY) from recent lows has put additional pressure on oil prices by increasing the cost of oil for holders of other currencies.
Positively, OPEC, the organization that produces oil, anticipates that despite many economic obstacles like rising interest rates and inflation, the world economy would expand and boost the need for gasoline.
Meanwhile, the governor of China’s central bank stated on Wednesday that the nation is anticipated to meet its annual gross domestic product growth target this year. Beijing has targeted an about 5% economic growth rate for this year.
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