Oil prices edge up after OPEC says market fundamentals are strong. Tuesday saw a little increase in oil prices due to worries that supply may be interrupted if the United States imposes restrictions on Russian oil shipments, as well as an OPEC report that stated market fundamentals remained solid.

By 0113 GMT, Brent crude futures had increased by 33 cents, or 0.4%, to $82.85 per barrel. WTI oil futures for the United States were also up 33 cents, or 0.4%, to $78.59 a barrel. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries attributed the recent price decline to speculators in their monthly reports. Additionally, it maintained its relatively high 2024 prognosis while marginally raising its expectation for the rise in global oil consumption in 2023.

Due to worries that demand may decline in the two largest oil consumers, the United States and China, oil prices fell to their lowest since July last week. October saw a sharp decline in Chinese consumer prices to levels not seen since the COVID-19 epidemic, and exports declined more than anticipated.

In a report published on Tuesday, ANZ Research analysts stated, “OPEC reiterated its view that global supply balances are tight and consumption is healthy in response to the recent bearish sentiment.”

However, the report also stated that renewed negotiations to reopen an oil pipeline in Iraq may hinder the market. To restart oil production from the oilfields in the Kurdish area and oil exports from the north via the Iraq-Turkey pipeline, the oil minister of Iraq hopes to agree with the Kurdistan Regional Government and international oil corporations.

Since March 25, Turkey has stopped exporting 450,000 barrels per day (bpd) of oil from the north via the Iraq-Turkey pipeline due to an arbitration judgment by the International Chamber of Commerce.

A U.S. ban on Russian oil shipments, which may have disrupted supplies, also helped oil prices. The most significant move taken by Washington since a price restriction was set to limit oil payments to Moscow is that the U.S. Treasury Department has written notifications to ship management firms demanding information about 100 boats it believes violate Western sanctions on Russian oil.

In addition, the U.S. Department of Energy intends to purchase 1.2 million barrels of oil to aid with the restocking of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, which was depleted last year to an unprecedented degree.

Later in the day, the International Energy Agency’s most recent monthly report on the oil market is expected to be a focal point. On Tuesday, U.S. inflation data will also be released; on Wednesday, U.S. producer price index data is anticipated.