After OPEC+ postponed a ministerial meeting, prompting suspicion that producers could cut output less than planned, oil prices fell by more than one percent on Thursday, extending losses from the previous trading day. This caused losses to extend from the previous trading session.
After dropping as much as 4% on Wednesday, Brent futures were trading at $80.94 a barrel when 06:25 GMT rolled around, reflecting a loss of $1.02, or 1.2%. After falling by as much as 5% in the previous session, the price of U.S. West Texas Intermediate oil dropped another 87 cents, which is equivalent to 1.1%, to $76.23.
Because of the Thanksgiving break in the United States, business was anticipated to be relatively slow. A ministerial conference that was supposed to take place on November 30 to discuss oil production reductions was unexpectedly postponed to November 30 by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, one of whom was Russia.
According to sources from OPEC and its allies, producers were having difficulty agreeing and, as a result, making prospective reductions before the meeting scheduled for November 26.
However, three sources inside OPEC+ stated that this was due to African nations, minor producers within the organization. This information helped to alleviate some of the fears that investors had.
According to several analysts, Angola, Congo, and Nigeria were trying to increase their production quotas for 2024 above the preliminary amounts agreed upon during the OPEC+ summit in June.
“At that meeting, OPEC squared the books on increasing the UAE’s quota… by reducing the targets for the African nations that were underperforming their required production numbers,” said Helima Croft, an analyst at RBC Capital Markets, in a client note. “At that meeting, OPEC squared the books on increasing the UAE’s quota… by reducing the targets for the African nations that were underperforming their required production numbers.”
In comparison, Nigeria has been able to raise output above target as a result of a better security situation in the oil-rich Niger Delta. This contrasts with the scenario in Angola and Congo, which have produced less than their 2024 production objectives.
“We believe that the situation in Nigeria can be resolved as the country’s leadership places a high emphasis on maintaining its long-standing membership in OPEC and strengthening ties with Saudi Arabia… According to Croft of RBC, “it may be more difficult to bridge the gap with Angola, which has been a moodier producer group member ever since it joined in 2007.”
According to experts working for ING Bank, disagreements among market participants are expected to increase the market’s volatility level over the following week.
The data that indicated the increase in U.S. oil stockpiles by 8.7 million barrels last week, which was far more than the 1.16 million build that experts had predicted, led to worries over the supply from OPEC and its allies.
In the week leading up to November 22, an energy services corporation called Baker Hughes (BKR.O.) reported that the number of oil rigs operating in the United States did not vary from the previous week’s total of 500.
On Wednesday, the United States Coast Guard said that a leak in an undersea pipeline had caused around 3% of crude oil production in the Gulf of Mexico to be halted, equivalent to approximately 61,165 barrels of daily output.
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