The NCAA March Madness men’s basketball tournament began on March 20, 2025, and as expected, it delivered a whirlwind of drama, upsets, and bracket-busting chaos. With over 34 million brackets submitted before the tournament tipped off, the dream of a perfect bracket was already a long shot. But after just seven games, that dream became even more elusive—less than 6% of brackets remained flawless.

The first day of the tournament was a mix of predictable outcomes and shocking upsets. One of the most notable surprises came when McNeese State University, a No. 12 seed, narrowly defeated No. 5 seed Clemson University in a thrilling 69-67 game. This upset alone wiped out millions of perfect brackets, reducing the number from 11 million to just under 2 million. For bracket enthusiasts, it was a harsh reminder of the unpredictability that makes March Madness so captivating—and so frustrating.

The odds of predicting a perfect bracket are astronomically low. By random guessing, the chances are 1 in 9.22 quintillion. Even for die-hard college basketball fans with deep knowledge of the teams, the odds only improve slightly to 1 in 120.2 billion. As Antonio Pequeño IV, a Forbes Breaking News Reporter, noted, “No one has ever submitted a verifiably perfect March Madness bracket.” The closest anyone came was in 2019, when an Ohio man correctly predicted 49 out of 63 games before his streak ended in the Elite Eight.

Despite the near-impossible odds, organizations like X (formerly Twitter), ESPN, and USA Today Sports are offering enticing rewards to keep fans engaged. X is going all out with a trip to Mars or $250,000, SpaceX astronaut training, and a Starship launch viewing for anyone who achieves the impossible. ESPN is offering 20 grand prizes of $5,000 for correctly predicting the national champion, while USA Today Sports is dangling a $1 million prize for a perfect bracket. The NCAA Bracket Challenge Sweepstakes is also in the mix, offering two tickets to next year’s Final Four, a four-night hotel stay, $1,500 for airfare, and $750 in spending money.

As the tournament progresses, all eyes are on the favorites. Duke University leads the pack with +320 odds, meaning a $100 bet could win $320. Other top contenders include the University of Florida (+380), Auburn University (+450), and the University of Houston (+600). But as history has shown, March Madness is anything but predictable.

The first day of the tournament was a reminder of why millions of fans tune in every year. It’s not just about basketball—it’s about the thrill of the underdog, the heartbreak of a busted bracket, and the hope that maybe, just maybe, this year will be different. Whether you’re a casual fan or a die-hard bracketologist, March Madness 2025 is already living up to its name.

So, as the games continue, keep an eye on your bracket—but don’t be too surprised if it doesn’t survive the next round. After all, in March Madness, chaos is the only guarantee.