The NCAA March Madness tournament is always a whirlwind of excitement, and the second day of the 2025 tournament proved no different. With over 34 million brackets submitted at the start, the dream of a perfect bracket quickly became a distant hope for most fans. By the end of the second day, less than 1% of brackets remained flawless, showcasing just how unpredictable and thrilling March Madness can be.
The day was marked by several key upsets that sent shockwaves through the tournament. One of the biggest surprises came when No. 12 McNeese State pulled off a stunning 69-67 victory over No. 5 Clemson. This upset alone slashed the number of perfect brackets from 11 million to under 2 million, proving once again that March Madness is the ultimate test of unpredictability. Another notable upset was No. 10 Arkansas defeating No. 7 Kansas 79-72, which pushed the number of perfect brackets below the 1% mark.
Other games, like No. 11 Drake’s 67-57 win over No. 6 Missouri and Creighton’s 89-75 victory over Louisville, further decimated the pool of perfect brackets. By the end of the day, only about 8,000 brackets remained unscathed, a stark reminder of how challenging it is to predict every game correctly.
The odds of achieving a perfect bracket are astronomically low—1 in 9.22 quintillion for random guessing and 1 in 120.2 billion even with some knowledge of the teams. Despite these daunting numbers, the allure of a perfect bracket continues to captivate fans, especially with the tantalizing rewards on offer. X (formerly Twitter) is offering a once-in-a-lifetime prize: a trip to Mars, complete with SpaceX astronaut training and a Starship launch viewing. For those who prefer to keep their feet on Earth, there’s a $250,000 cash alternative. Other platforms like ESPN and USA Today Sports are also offering significant cash prizes, with the NCAA Bracket Challenge Sweepstakes providing tickets to next year’s Final Four and a $1,500 travel stipend.
Historically, no one has ever submitted a verifiably perfect March Madness bracket. The closest attempt came in 2019 when an Ohio man correctly predicted 49 out of 63 games before his streak ended in the Elite Eight. This year, Duke University is the favorite to win the tournament, with odds of +320, followed closely by the University of Florida and Auburn University.
The tournament’s unpredictability is part of what makes it so special. As Antonio Pequeño IV, a Forbes staff writer covering the event, noted, “March Madness is a reminder that in sports, anything can happen.” Whether you’re a die-hard basketball fan or a casual observer, the drama of March Madness is impossible to ignore. And while the chances of a perfect bracket are slim, the excitement of trying is what keeps millions of fans coming back year after year.
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