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Inside Asia’s arms race: China near ‘breakthroughs’ with nuclear-armed submarines, report says

Chinese Navy's nuclear-powered submarine Long March 11 takes part in a naval parade off the eas... Chinese Navy's nuclear-powered submarine Long March 11 takes part in a naval parade off the eastern port city of Qingdao, to mark the 70th anniversary of the founding of Chinese People's Liberation Army Navy, China, April 23, 2019. REUTERS/Jason Lee/File Photo
Chinese Navy's nuclear-powered submarine Long March 11 takes part in a naval parade off the eas... Chinese Navy's nuclear-powered submarine Long March 11 takes part in a naval parade off the eastern port city of Qingdao, to mark the 70th anniversary of the founding of Chinese People's Liberation Army Navy, China, April 23, 2019. REUTERS/Jason Lee/File Photo

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Inside Asia’s arms race: China near ‘breakthroughs’ with nuclear-armed submarines, report says. The creation of a new generation of nuclear-armed submarines by China will likely test rising U.S. and international efforts to track them for the first time, escalating the submarine arms race.

According to analysts and regional defense attaches, there is growing evidence that China will be able to operate its Type 096 ballistic missile submarine by the end of the decade, thanks in part to technological advances from Russia.

The U.S. Naval War College’s China Maritime Studies Institute conducted research that was presented at a conference in May and then published in August with the conclusion that the new warships would be much more difficult to track. The opinions of seven experts and three military attachés in Asia support that judgment.

One of the researchers, veteran submariner and naval technical intelligence analyst Christopher Carlson predicted that the Type 096s would be “a nightmare.” “They are going to be very, very hard to detect.”

One of the main reasons the U.S. Navy and other armies in the Indo-Pacific area have expanded deployments and contingency planning is the covert effort to follow China’s nuclear-powered and -armed ballistic missile submarines, known as SSBNs. When Type 096s are put into service, that drive is anticipated to intensify.

The Pentagon reported in November that the Chinese navy regularly conducts fully armed nuclear deterrent patrols from its older Type 094 boats out of Hainan Island in the South China Sea, simulating patrols conducted for years by the United States, Britain, Russia, and France.

However, the Type 094s are considered relatively loud, which is a big disadvantage for military submarines as they are equipped with China’s most sophisticated submarine-launched JL-3 missiles.

In terms of stealth, sensors, and armaments, the Type 096 submarine will be comparable to modern Russian submarines, according to the study. It stated that the U.S. and its partners in the Indo-Pacific will be affected by the capability jump in “profound” ways.

The report examines over 50 years of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) navy’s frequently glacial nuclear submarine development. It is based partly on Chinese military periodicals, internal speeches by top PLA leaders, and patent data.

It includes satellite images of the pressure hull construction for a big submarine obtained in November at China’s brand-new Huludao shipyard. As indicated in the Pentagon’s yearly briefings on China’s military, the building is on track to make the boats operational by 2030.

The study also describes prospective innovations based on “imitative innovation” of Russian technology, such as pump-jet propulsion and interior quieting systems. The Chinese or Russian defense ministries did not answer Reuters’ requests for comment.

The ship will probably be a lot bigger than the Type 094, enabling it to have an inside “raft” built on intricate rubber supports to quieten other sounds, comparable to Russian designs.

Carlson told Reuters that while he did not think China had acquired Russia’s “crown jewels”- its most advanced technology- it would be building a submarine as stealthy as Moscow’s Improved Akula vessels.

“We have a hard time finding and tracking the Improved Akulas as it is,” Carlson stated.

Collin Koh, a defense expert based in Singapore, said that the study provided access to covert research initiatives to enhance China’s SSBNs and anti-submarine warfare capabilities. They are attempting to catch up in quieting and propulsion because they know they are behind the curve, according to Koh of Singapore’s S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies.

Carlson asserted that he thought China’s strategists would use freshly strengthened positions in the contested South China Sea to keep SSBNs inside safe “bastions” near its shores, similar to Russia’s.

AFTERBEAT OF THE COLD WAR

The possibility of more sophisticated SSBNs will make an already difficult subsurface monitoring war even more difficult. In a nod to the hunt for Soviet “boomers” during the Cold War, analysts and military attachés believe the surveillance of Chinese submarines is becoming a more global operation, with the armies of Japan and India supporting the forces of the United States, Australia, and Britain.

The number of anti-submarine warfare exercises is rising, as are the P-8 Poseidon aircraft’s deployments in the Indian Ocean and Southeast Asia. The advanced plane, which uses sonobuoys and other more sophisticated tactics, such as scanning the ocean surface, to identify submarines far below, is flown by the United States, Japan, India, South Korea, Australia, Britain, and New Zealand.

According to a September report from Reuters, the United States is also overhauling its top-secret underwater surveillance network to counter China’s expanding influence.

The AUKUS agreement between Australia, Britain, and the U.S., which would see greater deployments of British and U.S. attack submarines to Western Australia, is partially motivated by the possibility of a quieter Chinese SSBN. Australia anticipates launching its first nuclear-powered assault submarines using British technology in the 2030s.

The current situation is intriguing, according to Alexander Neill, a defense expert based in Singapore. “Even if they are at parity in capability, that is highly significant,” said Neill, an adjunct fellow at Hawaii’s Pacific Forum think-tank. “China is on track with a new generation of submarine ahead of the first AUKUS boats.” To match AUKUS capabilities, he said, China’s submarine force will need to train actively and intensely over the following ten years, even if it achieves technological parity.

Vasily Kashin, a Chinese military expert at HSE University in Moscow, suggested that it was plausible for Chinese engineers to have accomplished the advancements detailed in the paper. Kashin noted that although China probably acquired some significant Russian technology in the 1990s following the dissolution of the Soviet Union, Beijing and Moscow did not have any known technology-sharing agreements before the 2010 nuclear reactor pact.

He claimed that while China could have advanced through modifications of Russian designs and other means, such as espionage, it is improbable that they possess the most recent Russian systems. “China is not an adversary of Russia in the naval field,” Kashin stated. “It is not creating difficulties for us, it is creating problems for the U.S.”


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