Hodlers of Bitcoin (BTC) are facing a pivotal week in more ways than one, as the price of $42,000 rekindles an old struggle.
Thirty percent of the BTC supply is currently at a loss, according to on-chain analytics firm Glassnode, which has historically been a significant number to defend for bulls.
Mixed opinions on rebound chances
Bitcoin’s drop from $69,000 to current levels — a drop of more than 40% — is not exceptional, but long-term investors have reason to believe that present support will hold.
When looking at historical price performance, Glassnode discovers that when 30% of the supply falls “underwater,” price rebounds are common.
Staff explained in the latest issue of its weekly email, “The Week On-Chain,” that “while the bears put pressure to the in-profit cohort of holders, Bitcoin bulls are defending a historically large level of the Percent of Supply in Profit indicator,” portraying bulls as “under siege.”
“
“In the last few years, this scale of ‘top heavy supply’ has been defended in two cases.”
These were the market crashes that followed COVID-19 in March 2020 and summer 2021 due to China’s mining crackdown. The 30% stop-loss level resulted in an upward impulsive move for spot price in both cases.

- The near-term movements of Bitcoin and Ethereum are expected to indicate further direction
- Goldman Sachs On Possibility of Bitcoin Overtaking Gold
- Bitcoin may outperform stocks in 2022 amid Federal Reserve tightening Bloomberg analyst
Continuing, Glassnode admitted that achieving the same result this time is far from certain.
“
“The reaction from this level will most likely provide insight into the Bitcoin market’s medium-term trend,” the newsletter stated.
“
“Further decline might push these underwater sellers to give up, whilst a strong bullish impulse could provide much-needed psychological comfort and return more coins to an unrealized profit.”
Others were more positive, with CryptoQuant, another on-chain platform, predicting a good outcome.
“
“When it had previously risen to similar heights, the bull run had only began in July.” A blog piece suggested that “the bulls are aggressively prepping for the fresh run.”
“A market controlled by hodlers.”
Cointelegraph previously reported on long-term holders (LTH) and miners’ steadfast will to protect their investments.
What is a bear market, exactly? According to one analyst, the current Bitcoin price drop is similar to prior Bitcoin cycles.
With short-term holdings (STH) – defined by Glassnode as coins that have moved in the last 155 days — remaining low as a percentage of total supply, there is still hope that the worst of the capitulation following all-time highs has passed.
“
“This cohort’s supply lies at 3 million BTC, a historical low and a level that indicates a shift into a HODLer-dominated market,” the newsletter stated.
“
“This has been in place since the deleveraging event in May 2021. Low STH supply levels are typical of bearish trends, as older coins sit idle while newer coins are steadily acquired by high conviction buyers.”

Comment Template