On Friday, cooling economic data, a hawkish Federal Reserve, and European political crises drove U.S. markets down, gold up, and European stocks down their largest weekly loss of the year.
The euro fell to its greatest Friday-to-Friday dip in two months as the dollar rose versus a basket of international currencies.
“We’re finally seeing some signs of contagion in Europe’s political turmoil,” said Philadelphia’s Simplify Asset Management chief strategist Michael Green.
“You’re seeing risk metrics getting amped up and people are moving into risk-off assets,” he said. “And you’re not just seeing it in the stock market.”
The S&P 500 and Dow closed modestly lower, but the tech-heavy Nasdaq gained slightly to achieve its fifth consecutive all-time high.
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq gained, with the latter posting its greatest weekly percentage rise since late April.
The Dow may close the week lower than last Friday.
As expected, the Fed ended its two-day monetary policy meeting without changing its benchmark interest rate. In its Summary of Economic Projections, the central bank trimmed its predicted rate decreases this year from three to one, sounding more hawkish than expected.
A sequence of economic measures showed inflation falling faster than economists expected, which could lead the data-dependent Fed to reassess the timing and amount of cuts this year.
“The Fed says, ‘We plan on cutting one time,’ right? Investors were disappointed, “Green stated. They acknowledged that inflation is encouraging and the economy is faltering. Investors face the same issue.”
Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester called the recent cooling inflation statistics “welcome,” after the week’s CPI and PPI figures came in below analyst estimates. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee called it a relief but cautioned that more improvement is required.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) fell 57.94 points, or 0.15%, to 38,589.16, the S&P 500 (.SPX) dipped 2.14 points, or 0.04%, to 5,431.6, and the Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) rose 21.32 points, or 0.12%, to 17,688.88.
French political uncertainty hampered risk appetite, extending European stock sell-offs. The pan-European STOXX 600 dropped 2.4% for the week, its biggest decline since 2024.
The pan-European STOXX 600 index fell 0.97%, while MSCI’s global stock index fell 0.28%.
Emerging market stocks increased 0.05%. MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) fell 0.16%, while Japan’s Nikkei jumped 0.24%.
The dollar rose while the euro fell to its worst weekly dip in two months due to French political uncertainty.
After a surprising dovish Bank of Japan policy report, the yen recovered.
The dollar index increased 0.31% and the euro fell 0.31% to $1.0702.
The Japanese yen fell 0.16% to 157.31 per dollar, while Sterling fell 0.58% to $1.2685.
Economic statistics showed slowing inflation, sending U.S. Treasury yields to their lowest level since early April.
Benchmark 10-year notes increased 8/32 to 4.2112% from 4.24% late Thursday.
From 4.401% late Thursday, the 30-year bond climbed 31/32 to 4.3442%.
Oil prices fell but had their best week in four months thanks to strong demand expectations.
U.S. crude fell 0.22% to $78.45 a barrel, while Brent fell 0.16% to $82.62.
Gold prices rose for the first time in four weeks.
“Geopolitics are unpredictable. “Central banks are stockpiling gold, the stable money,” said Thomas Martin, senior portfolio manager at GLOBALT in Atlanta.
Gold gained 1.3% to $2,332.00 ounces.
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