Dubai to showcase demand for jets under the shadow of tensions. Next week, Dubai will host its prestigious aerospace pageant against the backdrop of the Israel-Hamas conflict in Gaza, which is increasing demand for weaponry, blocking airspace, and increasing the cost and duration of flights for some carriers.

Every two years, the Dubai Airshow serves as a gauge for the aviation sector and has historically resulted in a flurry of business negotiations for aircraft manufacturers Boeing (BA.N.) and Airbus (AIR.PA). It’s also a chance to gauge how gun buyers are feeling.

According to analysts, the battle in Gaza is expected to increase demand for weaponry, which has already increased during the previous 18 months as the US and its allies rearmed Ukraine against Russia.

The United States has committed to providing Israel with the necessary weapons to combat Hamas, which the Israeli government claims murdered 1,400 people when it invaded Israel on October 7. Over 10,000 people have died as a result of Israel’s retaliatory attack on Gaza, according to health officials in the beleaguered region.

More than 1,400 businesses from 95 countries, including four listed firms from Israel, are anticipated, according to the organizers.

The war has hampered some commercial passenger movement; airlines have canceled flights to Israel, where Hamas rocket fire has targeted the airport, and tourism has plummeted. Travelers are also canceling or delaying planned trips to the Middle East and North Africa as regional officials warn of a regional spillover danger.

From a geopolitical perspective, the November 13–17 event is “going to be an exciting show,” according to Richard Aboulafia of AeroDynamic Advisories.

Long-term plans are not anticipated to fall apart due to the Israeli war. Still, he added that carriers in nations looking to expand air transport, like Saudi Arabia, could have to consider if the war will affect their ability to develop in the future.

The fifth week of the conflict has “slightly impacted” demand from markets in parts of Asia, according to Emirates Chief Operating Officer Adel Al Redha’s statement last week.

“While we don’t wish for any conflict, we are used to being able to adapt our operation and mitigate every risk,” he stated.

The head of Jordan’s national airline, which borders Israel, reported a significant decline in bookings and increased operational expenses due to the carrier’s decision to fly longer routes across Israeli airspace.

Declaring, “This is our fate,” CEO Samer Majali of Royal Jordanian bemoaned the history of violence and instability in the area.

ENTREPIDAL RECOVERY

Nevertheless, orders are anticipated to be generated by the show, indicating a resurgence of interest in long-haul aircraft, with Emirates planning to purchase further Airbus A350, Boeing 787, or Boeing 777X aircraft.

The primary concern is the ability of manufacturers to resolve issues related to certification or the supply chain to bring their newest models, particularly the 777X, to the region.

The 777X, currently five years behind schedule, would benefit from a widely anticipated fresh order from Emirates.

Tim Clark, the airline’s president, stated in May that he planned to get the long-delayed 777-9 variant between July and October 2025.

Al Redha, however, said at Aviation Week last week that the jet would now arrive in October 2025. Industry insiders also stated that the program was constantly pressured to adhere to regulator-mandated development deadlines.

Boeing stated that there had been no revision to their projections, which, as of late, indicated that the aircraft would be delivered in 2025.

According to insiders, Saudi Arabia’s Riyadh Air may announce a significant order for narrow-body aircraft, with Boeing now being preferred over Airbus in a close back-and-forth struggle. Before the event, Flydubai, Etihad, and IndiGo, an Indian airline, had also been pursuing partnerships. Nobody was accessible for a response.