ON FRIDAY, the U.S. dollar rose against a basket of currencies as global economic activity figures showed the U.S.’s superiority over other major countries. S&P Global reported that its flash U.S. Composite PMI index, which tracks manufacturing and services, fell to 50.1 in September from 50.2 in August. September narrowly exceeded the 50-point expansion-contraction line.
So far this year, the U.S. economy has resisted economists’ predictions of a recession caused by the Federal Reserve’s aggressive interest rate rises to curb inflation. The news follows gloomy European data showing that French economic growth decreased faster than predicted in September. Eurozone poll data revealed the GDP likely declined in the third quarter.
The U.S. data “is continuing to outpace the rest of the world and I think it will continue to do so for some time,” said Trader X market analyst Michael Brown. “Unless we see a sustained pickup in growth in the rest of D.M. (developed markets), I struggle to take a bearish view on the buck over the medium-term, as the F.X. market increasingly focuses on which central bank will spend the longest at its terminal rate,” Brown said.
The U.S. dollar index, which measures the currency against six major equivalents, rose 0.2% to 105.6 after reaching 105.78 earlier in the session. This puts the index on track for a 0.3% weekly gain, its 10th straight week of gains and longest winning streak in over a decade.
On Friday, Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman argued that the U.S. central bank must raise interest rates to control inflation in a “timely way,” citing rising energy prices and the possibility that the inflation battle may take years. On Wednesday, the Fed maintained interest rates at 5.25% to 5.5% and said it would keep them there until inflation reached 2%.
The Bank of Japan (BOJ) held interest rates zero on Friday, days after the Federal Reserve signaled high U.S. borrowing prices, pressuring the yen. On Friday, the BOJ maintained interest rates at -0.1% and pledged to support the economy until inflation reached 2%.
“We have yet to foresee inflation stably and sustainably achieve our price target,” BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda told a press conference. At 148.42 to the dollar, the yen was nearing 150, where experts expect government assistance to support the currency. Last, at 148.375 yen, the dollar rose 0.53%.
“I think it’s rather dovish, and that’s why the yen went past 148,” said RBC Capital Markets Asia FX strategy head Alvin Tan.
Tokyo’s support for the yen rumors grew. Japan’s finance minister, Shunichi Suzuki, warned Friday against a currency sell-off that would damage the trade-dependent economy. Sterling fell 0.47% to $1.2237 as reports revealed that the U.K. economy deteriorated severely in September and may be in a recession.
It was near its six-month low of $1.22305 as the Bank of England (BoE) ended its long run of interest rate increases on Thursday, a day after Britain’s robust price inflation unexpectedly slowed.
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