What do Kondratieff waves consist of?

The Kondratieff Wave, named after the Russian economist Nikolai Kondratieff, refers to cycles of approximately 40 to 60 years that capitalist economies experience. Additionally, they are referred to as “Kondratiev waves,” “super-cycles,” “K-waves,” “surges,” and “long waves.”

Knowledge of Kondratieff Waves

A Kondratieff wave is a long-term economic cycle believed to be the consequence of technological innovation, resulting in an extended period of economic prosperity. Nikolai D. Kondratieff (also spelled “Kondratiev”), a communist Russia-era economist who observed long-term cycles in agricultural commodity and copper prices, developed this theory. According to Kondratieff, these cycles included periods of evolution and self-correction.

Since the 18th century, economists have identified the following Kondratieff waves:

• The first era, from 1780 to 1830, resulted from the invention of the steam engine.
• The second cycle occurred from 1830 to 1880 due to the steel industry and the expansion of railroads.
• The third cycle, which lasted from 1880 to 1930, resulted from electrification and innovation in the chemical industry.
• Petrochemicals and automobiles were fuel for the fourth cycle, which ran from 1930 to 1970.
• Some economists think biotechnology and healthcare are starting to drive the sixth wave. The fifth cycle began in 1970, ran to the present day, and was founded on information technology.

Additionally, each cycle can have four sub-cycles, or phases, that have been designated after seasons.

• Increases in productivity and inflation in the spring indicate an economic expansion.
• Summer: An increase in the general level of wealth causes a shift in attitudes toward labor, which slows economic growth.
• Autumn: Stagnant economic conditions spawn a deflationary growth spiral, spawning isolationist policies and further reducing growth prospects.
• Winter: The economy is in the midst of a crippling depression that rips apart the social fabric of society as the disparity between the number of “haves” and “have-nots” widens dramatically.

Nikolai D. Kondratieff’s Fate

Fate Kondratieff Waves by Nikolai D. Kondratieff belongs to a branch of economics known as “heterodox economics” because it does not conform to the generally accepted, orthodox theories economists advocate. In addition, the theory was not accepted in Kondratieff’s Russia. His views were abhorrent to communist officials, particularly Josef Stalin, because they implied that capitalist nations were not on a path to destruction but rather experienced ups and downs. He was consequently sent to a concentration camp in Siberia and executed by firing squad in 1938.

Conclusion

• There are many names for the same thing: super-cycles, K-waves, swells, and long waves. The Kondratieff Wave describes cycles that capitalist countries go through that last between 40 and 60 years.
• A Kondratieff wave is a long-term economic cycle marked by times of change and self-correction. New technologies that result in a protracted period of wealth are to blame.
• Although Kondratieff’s home country did not accept his theory, Kondratieff’s waves are now considered part of an area of economics known as “heterodox economics,” which means they do not fit with the most common and accepted ideas among economists.