What’s a horizon analysis?
Horizon analysis evaluates the discounted returns of an asset or investment portfolio over many periods or investment horizons.
Understanding Horizontal Analysis
Horizontal analysis uses scenario analysis to forecast investment or portfolio performance more accurately. This study typically evaluates the performance of fixed-income instrument (bond) portfolios.
The horizon analysis methodology helps portfolio managers predict bond performance based on investment horizon, risk levels, interest rates, reinvestment rates, and future market yields.
Breaking down predicted returns into scenarios allows for evaluating the best bonds for the desired investment term, unlike utilizing yield to maturity (YTM). This scenario analysis shows the portfolio manager how sensitive a bond’s performance is to each scenario and if it will achieve investor goals throughout its predicted investment horizon.
Similar Word
Financial statement analysis uses horizontal analysis to compare historical data across accounting periods, such as ratios or line items.
Investment Horizons and Portfolio Construction
Longer investing horizons allow investors to assume greater risk because the market has years to recover from pullbacks. An investor with a 30-year horizon may devote most of their assets to stocks.
Long-term investors may explore riskier securities like mid-cap and small-cap stocks. Companies in sub-asset classes are more volatile than large-cap companies due to their less established status and greater vulnerability to external economic factors.
These short-term movements may harm investors with shorter investment horizons, but they have little influence on investors holding those equities for 30 years.
As investing horizons decrease, investors modify their portfolios to reduce risk. Retirement portfolios typically shift from stocks to fixed-income assets as they approach retirement. Despite their lower long-term return than stocks, fixed-income investments stabilize portfolios due to their fewer short-term price fluctuations.
Conclusion
- Horizontal analysis examines a securities or investment portfolio’s expected discounted total returns over different time frames, called the investment horizon.
- Horizontal analysis often predicts bond portfolio performance.
- Horizontal analysis helps the portfolio manager choose the best bonds for the investment horizon.