What is the Hindenburg Omen?
The Hindenburg Omen is a technical indicator that predicts a stock market disaster. The indicator compares stock price spikes and lows to a specified reference percentage to anticipate market crashes.
James R. Miekka designed and pushed the project in 2010, named after the Hindenburg airship catastrophe on May 6, 1937. Only 25% of reports correctly forecasted a substantial stock market collapse.
Understanding Hindenburg Omen
Due to the upward tendency in stock markets, unexpected events often prompt investors to flee to safety. This investor psychology aspect is likely the most crucial cause of market collapses.
The Hindenburg Omen detects a statistical divergence from the idea that specific equities make new 52-week highs or lows under normal conditions. If both happened simultaneously, that would be unusual.
According to the Hindenburg Omen, this signals stock market peril. The signal usually happens during an advance, indicating an anxious and uncertain market, which might lead to a bear market.
Main Hindenburg Omen Signal Criteria
Four conditions suggest a Hindenburg omen:
- New 52-week highs and lows in a stock market index exceed a threshold (usually 2.2%) daily.
- Highs and lows cannot exceed two times.
- The stock index is rising. A 10-week moving average or 50-day rate of change indicator indicates this.
- The McClellan Oscillator (MCO) indicates an adverse movement in market sentiment.
These conditions activate the Omen for 30 trading days, dismissing any subsequent alerts. A positive MCO throughout the 30-day timeframe rejects the Omen.
When the MCO becomes negative within 30 days of an Omen confirmation, traders will short or liquidate long holdings.
Traders might have avoided the 1987 market crash and 2008 financial crisis by doing so.
Due to the omen’s 25% success rate, they would have wasted unnecessary time. Traders may combine the indicator with other technical analysis to confirm a sell or take-profit signal. Traders may wait for a breach of critical support levels before shorting or taking profit on an extended position.
Conclusion
- The technical indicator Omen predicts stock market crashes.
- It compares new 52-week highs and lows to a reference percentage.
- The Omen can help determine when to sell with additional technical analysis, but it’s not always accurate.