What exactly is a forward premium?
A forward premium occurs when the predicted future currency price exceeds the present price. The market expects the local exchange rate to rise versus the other currency.
A growing exchange rate might be perplexing, as it indicates a depreciation in currency worth.
Understanding Forward Premiums
A forward premium is typically the difference between the current spot price and the forward rate. Therefore, it is logical to believe that the future spot rate will equal the present future rate. The bold expectation theory states that the spot futures rate will match the future spot rate. This notion is based on actual data and is an acceptable long-term assumption.
A forward premium reflects the interest rate differential between the two nations’ currencies.
Forward exchange rates do not always match the spot exchange rate. A currency has a premium if its forward exchange rate exceeds its spot rate. A discount occurs when the forward exchange rate is lower than the spot rate.
Forward Rate Premium Calculation
To calculate a forward rate, you need the current spot price of the currency pair and the interest rates in both nations (see below). Consider this Japanese yen-U.S. dollar exchange:
Ninety-day yen to dollar (¥/$) forward exchange rate is 109.50.
Spot rate ¥ / $ = 109.38.
Formula for annualized forward premium: (109.50-109.38÷109.38) x (360 ÷ 90) x 100% = 0.44%
Since the dollar’s future value is 0.12 yen higher than the spot value, the dollar is “strong” against the yen. The yen trades at a discount because its dollar forward value is lower than its spot rate.
First, compute the forward exchange and spot rates in dollars per yen to determine the yen forward discount.
The ¥/$ forward exchange rate is 0.0091324 (1÷109.50).
The spot rate for ¥/$ is 0.0091424.
Dollar annualized forward discount for the yen = (0.0091324 – 0.0091424) ÷ 0.0091424) × (360 ÷ 90) × 100% = -0.44%.
To calculate periods other than a year, enter the number of days as indicated below. To get a three-month forward rate, multiply the spot rate by (1 + domestic rate times 90/360 / 1 + foreign rate times 90/360).
Multiply the spot rate by the interest rate ratio and adjust for expiration to get the forward rate. Thus, the forward rate equals spot rate x (1 + domestic interest rate) / (1 + international interest rate).
Suppose the U.S. dollar-to-euro exchange rate is $1.1365. U.S. interest rates are 5%, and overseas rates are 4.75%. F = $1.1365 x (1.05 / 1.0475) = $1.1392. It shows a forward premium.
Conclusion
- Currency forward premiums occur when the predicted future price exceeds the spot price.
- A forward premium is usually the spot rate minus the forward rate.
- Negative forward premiums are discounts.