Could an Eagles Super Bowl Victory Really Affect the Stock Market?

Every year, as the Super Bowl approaches, both football fans and market analysts entertain various theories about how the game’s outcome might impact the economy. One such theory suggests that when Philadelphia sports teams win championships, the stock market experiences downturns. But is there any credibility to this belief, or is it merely a coincidence?

The idea gained traction when Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, pointed out some historical patterns. For example, the Philadelphia Athletics won the World Series in 1929, the same year as the infamous stock market crash. In 2008, the Phillies secured a World Series victory during the financial crisis. More recently, the Eagles claimed their first Super Bowl win in 2018, the same year as the worst market decline since 2008.

While this may sound compelling, financial experts, including CNBC writer Ryan Ermey, caution against reading too much into these patterns. Historical coincidences do not constitute causation, and movements in the stock market are influenced by more substantial economic factors, such as corporate earnings, consumer confidence, and Federal Reserve policies.

Market superstition is nothing new. Over the years, several quirky indicators have gained attention. The Hemline Indicator, for instance, suggests that shorter skirts coincide with a booming economy, while longer skirts predict a downturn. Meanwhile, the January Barometer proposes that if the stock market rises in January, it will continue to perform well throughout the year. Though entertaining, such theories lack any real predictive power.

Furthermore, not all Philadelphia sports victories align with economic downturns. In 1983, when the 76ers won the NBA championship, the market surged by 17%. In 1975, after the Flyers’ Stanley Cup win, the market rose by 32%. Even after the Phillies’ 2008 World Series victory, the market rebounded within months.

Another popular but flawed market theory is the Super Bowl Indicator, which suggests that an NFC team’s victory signals a market rise, while an AFC team’s win predicts a decline. By this logic, an Eagles victory should boost the stock market. However, the theory lacks consistency—recent Chiefs Super Bowl wins (as an AFC team) did not result in market drops.

Ultimately, investors should not base financial decisions on sports outcomes. Stock market performance is influenced by economic fundamentals, not football games. While these quirky theories add an element of fun to market discussions, they remain nothing more than superstition.

So if you’re an Eagles fan, cheer for your team without worrying about your investment portfolio. And if you’re an investor, focus on real economic indicators rather than entertaining but unreliable market myths.