China’s auto market, the world’s largest, is moving toward electric vehicles, leaving global names behind.
Auto executives will return to a very different market when they attend the Shanghai auto show on Tuesday. In 2021, the industry met under tight COVID-19 controls.
The biggest change: New electric-drive models are helping China-made businesses lead important markets at home and abroad.
BYD (002594. SZ), the biggest winner, will reveal a hatchback EV for value-seekers and an SUV-styled EV at the Shanghai exhibition.
According to sales figures, BYD has 11% of the Chinese automobile market, greater than Volkswagen (VOWG_p.DE) or Toyota (7203.T).
“The stratification of this market into clear winners and losers is becoming clear,” Automobility founder Bill Russo wrote on Tuesday. “And there are very few winners and a whole lot of losers.”
According to the China Passenger Car Association, first-quarter sales fell 13%.
EV sales and plug-in hybrids—dominated by Chinese automakers like BYD—rose 22%. However, internal-combustion vehicle sales fell virtually equally.
Volkswagen, General Motors (GM.N), Honda (7267.T), and Nissan (7201.T) were hit twice. As a result, sales and market share are falling.
Since January, more than 40 automakers have followed Tesla in reducing EV pricing, which China calls “new energy vehicles.” Analysts claim it reduced industrial profitability.
Global manufacturers and Chinese companies dominated China’s entry-level passenger car market for years with combustion-engine cars.
Gasoline-only cars between $22,500 and $30,000 have suffered this year. EVs and plug-in hybrids gained 68% in the first quarter, while sales fell 20.5%.
BYD’s $20,000 Song plug-in hybrid SUV outsold the Nissan Sylphy, China’s top-selling car, for three years. The $17,000 BYD Dolphin EV beat the Volkswagen Passat.
Xu Haidong, the deputy chief engineer at the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, said the entry-level market might be “the final bastion” for gasoline-only vehicles in China due to battery material pricing pressure.
Electric-drive cars sell best in China’s premium segment, priced between $52,500 and $60,000.
BYD dominates China’s plug-in hybrid automobile market.
Analysts say BYD can compete on price across its line-up because plug-ins account for more than half of sales this year.
Tesla sold 137,000 Model 3 cars and Model Y crossovers in China in the first quarter, up 27%. In January, Tesla dropped Chinese prices by 6%–14%, increasing its share.
That made Chinese Tesla prices between $7,500 and $10,700 lower than discounted U.S. prices.
Tesla’s first-quarter earnings on Wednesday will be scrutinized for margin implications.
“Gaining further share in the key China market will be the hearts and lungs of the Tesla growth story,” Wedbush analyst Daniel Ives said on Monday.
China’s EV and PHEV exports are rising, threatening established brands. China exports rose 83% last quarter.
BYD shipments from China increased 13-fold to Europe and Southeast Asia.
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