Israel and Hezbollah fighting another war is something Lebanon cannot afford, with its economy in shambles and its government in disarray. Iran-supported According to reports, Hezbollah is aware of this and is considering Lebanon’s problems while strategizing the next moves in the fight with Israel.

The potential of war between Israel and Hezbollah is higher now than ever since their last major confrontation in 2006, as the struggle between Israel and Hezbollah’s Palestinian partner, Hamas, reverberates throughout the Middle East. Lebanese politicians worry that Israel would decide to start a big battle with Hezbollah. Analysts think the Shi’ite organization might escalate if Hamas seems to be on the ropes in the Gaza Strip, 200 kilometers (130 miles) away.

Israel, meanwhile, has warned Hezbollah that if it were to open the front, it would cause “devastation” to Lebanon. The costs of war are high in a nation that is already going through one of the most unstable periods since the civil war that raged there from 1975 to 1990. Israel is not interested in going to war. According to an insider acquainted with Hezbollah’s mindset, Lebanon has no interest in going to war.

According to the insider, the gang did not want the country to be devastated and thousands of Lebanese to migrate to the south.

Many others also worry about who will pay to rebuild, given the empty public coffers. Given Hezbollah’s increased influence in Lebanon, some wonder if the Sunni-led Gulf Arab governments who provided funding for rebuilding in 2006 will jump at the chance to assist again.

According to reports, Hezbollah’s border battles with Israeli forces have not escalated significantly thus far, even though over 40 members have lost their lives.

Hezbollah has, meanwhile, also expressed a preparedness for war, which is consistent with its role as the leader of an alliance supported by Iran that opposes both Israel and the United States.

Though they have little influence over Hezbollah’s policies, Lebanese officials have encouraged the group not to escalate. Druze leader Walid Jumblatt declared, “The fate of Lebanon is at stake,” describing this as the most hazardous time in his political career. He said that Lebanese citizens were powerless to prevent an Israeli-instigated conflict.

“But from our side, we must control matters, via dialogue and advising the brothers in Hezbollah to keep the rules of engagement as they are,” he told the press. Israeli President Isaac Herzog said, “If Hezbollah drags us into war, it should be clear that Lebanon will pay the price.” However, Israel was not seeking a conflict on its northern border.

Suleiman Frangieh, a Christian politician and one of Hezbollah’s closest allies, declared on Wednesday that the organization was against going to war. Had it, he said, Hezbollah forces would have invaded Israel on October 7 like Hamas did from Gaza.

According to a senior Lebanese official, governments have gotten in touch with Lebanon to defuse tensions. “We’re telling them that instead of telling us to restrain Hezbollah, they need to put pressure on the Israelis not to escalate,” he stated.

For Lebanon, which has seen several conflicts, including Israeli invasions in 1978 and 1982, and little stability since gaining its independence, the past few years have been especially trying.

The financial system collapsed in 2019 due to decades of corruption and poor management by the governing politicians, wiping away savings, devaluing the currency, and escalating poverty. The next year, a massive chemical explosion at the harbor destroyed Beirut. Hezbollah called the inquiry “politized” and used its influence to assist in scuttling, hoping to bring charges against some of its friends. Deadly violence resulted from tensions.

Factional fighting has left the state without a president and a fully empowered administration, making it unable to function. Any conflict would be significantly more catastrophic than the one that ended in 2006, according to Nabil Boumonsef, deputy editor-in-chief of the Annahar daily, and Lebanon lacked a government that could handle the aftermath.

“We would be facing a scenario of real terror – the destruction of the infrastructure in Lebanon and aborting any prospect of economic recovery,” he stated. After the 2006 conflict, which claimed 1,200 lives in Lebanon (mainly civilians) and 158 Israelis (primarily troops), it took years for Lebanon to recover.

Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, the head of Hezbollah, stated that the organization had not planned for war and would not have carried out the operation if he had known it would result in such a conflict when the war broke out after Hezbollah captured two Israeli soldiers and murdered others in a cross-border raid.

“MAKING THE PHONE”

To the dismay of its opponents, who claim that Hezbollah is once again determining matters of war and peace, the group has established a power balance in its favor after seventeen years thanks to its much-increased weaponry.

“They make the decisions. Leading Lebanese Forces party member Ghassan Hasbani, a devout Christian group adamantly opposed Hezbollah, stated, “This is completely unacceptable.”

“There are serious concerns about Lebanon being dragged into a destructive confrontation by Hezbollah, at a time when the fragility of its social and economic situation mean it cannot sustain any further instability.”

Hezbollah would be carefully considering how reconstruction would be funded following any conflict, according to Mohanad Hage Ali of the Carnegie Middle East Center. He cited concerns over whether Gulf Arab states would assist and how much money Iran could provide.

“The organization will undoubtedly incur political costs if there is no reconstruction…There will be a great deal of resentment and concerns raised.”