Brent holds above $80 a barrel ahead of the OPEC+ meeting. With Brent maintaining its price over $80 per barrel, oil prices saw minimal movement on Monday as traders anticipated an agreement to limit supply by 2024 at the OPEC+ summit later this week.

By 00:28 GMT, Brent oil futures had increased by 12 cents, or 0.2%, to $80.70 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures had increased by 10 cents, or 0.1%, to $75.64 a barrel.

Expectations that OPEC+ would discuss plans to decrease further and that Saudi Arabia and Russia could extend their voluntary production cuts beyond early 2024 supported a modest increase in both futures last week, marking their first weekly rise in five.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC+) and their allies, notably Russia, postponed a ministerial meeting until November 30 to resolve disagreements over output targets for African producers, which sent prices down in the middle of last week.

Since then, four OPEC+ sources told Reuters on Friday that the group has advanced toward a deal.

“We still expect an extension of the unilateral Saudi and Russia cuts through at least 2024 Q1 and unchanged group cuts, although a deeper group insurance cut is likely on the table,” the analysts at Goldman Sachs said in a note.

According to them, OPEC members’ expected shipments have decreased to 1.3 million barrels per day below April levels ahead of the OPEC+ summit, according to the group’s supply objectives.

However, when a new OPEC+ mandate takes effect, and barrels are diverted to the foreign market due to refinery maintenance, the United Arab Emirates is expected to increase shipments of its flagship Murban crude early next year, according to traders and Reuters data.

Even if the OPEC+ countries continue their cutbacks into the following year, the International Energy Agency anticipates a bit of excess in the world’s oil markets in 2024.

Vivek Dhar, an analyst at the Commonwealth Bank, said: “With the IEA forecasting that global oil demand will only grow 0.9 million bpd next year, down from 2.4 million bpd growth in 2023, OPEC+ will have to show significant supply discipline, or at least jawbone such ability, to alleviate market worries of a deep surplus in oil markets next year.”

Following a truce in Gaza and the exchange of hostages and detainees, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have decreased, and oil prices have stabilized.