Banana Prices Likely to Increase with Temperature Surge, Says Expert
Pascal Liu, senior economist at the UN’s Food and Agriculture Organization, warns that bananas may become more expensive due to climate change’s impacts. He emphasizes that climate-related challenges present an “enormous threat” to banana supply, exacerbating the effects of rapidly spreading diseases. The World Banana Forum convened in Rome to address these challenges, with recent storms causing banana shortages in some UK shops.
The UK, a significant consumer of bananas, imports approximately 5 billion of the fruit annually, with 90% sold through major supermarkets. While short-term weather events, such as storms at sea, may cause fluctuations in the supply chain, experts are increasingly concerned about the long-term threats posed by a warming world and the accompanying diseases.
Climate change’s impact on banana production includes severe weather events affecting cultivation and rising temperatures that can devastate crops in specific regions. Of immediate concern is Fusarium Wilt TR4, a fungal infection that has spread from Australia and Asia to Africa and South America. Once a plantation is infected, the fungus kills all banana trees, posing a significant challenge for eradication.
Rising temperatures contribute to the accelerated spread of diseases like Fusarium Wilt TR4, which has mutated to affect the Cavendish banana variety, the world’s most popular. The spores of the fungus are highly resilient and can spread rapidly through flooding and strong winds, making it difficult to control.
Banana producers also face challenges from rising costs of fertilizers, energy, transportation, and labor shortages. These factors and climate change impacts are expected to contribute to higher and sustained banana prices in the UK and globally. Liu projects that if there is no significant increase in supply, banana prices will remain relatively high in the coming years.
The World Banana Forum is addressing the critical issue of sustainability in the industry. Consumers are increasingly seeking sustainably produced bananas, prompting growers to adopt greener production methods and undergo certification to verify the sustainability of their fruit. While these regulations make production systems more sustainable, Liu notes that they also come with additional costs for producers, which may ultimately be passed on to consumers.
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