Asian stocks are steady, Japan, and China’s central banks interrupt the dollar’s ascent. On Tuesday, Asian stock markets inched up as remarks from central banks in China and Japan halted the dollar’s climb. This gave traders some breathing room ahead of U.S. inflation data that might impact whether or not the Federal Reserve hikes rates more in the future.
Overnight, the yen’s value rose to its highest level versus the dollar in the last two months. This came after the governor of the Bank of Japan, Kazuo Ueda, said that policymakers may have sufficient economic evidence by the end of the year to conclude that short-term interest rates would need to increase.
After the authorities promised to rectify one-way swings and Reuters reported that the central bank had increased its surveillance of dollar buying, the yuan’s value saw its best day in the last six months.
In offshore trade, the yuan was trading at 7.3016 dollars to one dollar, while the yen was last seen trading at 146.68 dollars to one dollar, a bit lower than its highest level on Monday. Both currencies, however, remain close to their lowest levels of the year.
On Tuesday, the market for Japanese government bonds remained volatile, with rates on 10-year JGBs increasing by one basis point to a new all-time high of 0.71 percent.
“The result of Ueda’s comments was an intense move higher in Japanese swaps and government bond yields,” said Chris Weston, head of research at brokerage Pepperstone in Melbourne. “This was the result of Ueda’s comments.”
“(It) is beneficial for anyone who owns yen longs. At this time, though, I try not to get too enthusiastic since the activities being taken are more of a medium-term concern, and the conclusion of the spring wage discussions won’t be known until April 2024.
The announcement that China’s biggest private property developer, Country Garden (2007. HK), has received clearance from creditors to extend the repayment terms on six onshore notes by three years has provided investors in China with some measure of reassurance.
Because of this, the Hang Seng Mainland Properties Index (.HSMPI) in Hong Kong increased by as much as 1.5%, reversing an earlier decline of more than 2%.
Matt Simpson, senior market analyst at City Index, said, “This is likely just another case of kicking the can down the road.” However, at least, it seems to have halted the bleeding on the property index. “Kicking the can down the road”
The most comprehensive index of Asia-Pacific equities tracked by MSCI that does not include Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) had a rise of 0.12%. The markets are looking to the U.S. inflation report and this week’s meeting of the European Central Bank to establish expectations for interest rate changes and the mood. Thus, Japan’s Nikkei (.N225) climbed by 0.61%.
The markets anticipate that the annualized core inflation in the United States fell to 4.3% in August, while the headline rate is expected to rise to 3.6%. These numbers are scheduled to be released on Wednesday.
“A lower-than-expected print may slow the U.S. dollar’s rise, while a higher print could potentially unnerve risk sentiments as it would reinforce market expectations for further rate hikes, and this could fuel dollar strength,” said OCBC analyst Christopher Wong. “A higher print could potentially unnerve risk sentiments as it would reinforce market expectations for further rate hikes, and this could fuel dollar strength.”
The futures markets for interest rates now price in approximately a 45% possibility of another rate rise in the United States before the end of the year.
This week will also test investors’ risk tolerance when British chip designer Arm Holdings lists its shares on the New York Stock Exchange to generate approximately $5 billion.
Overnight, U.S. stock markets gained ground thanks to a decline in the value of the dollar and an upgrade on Tesla from analysts at Morgan Stanley. The value of Tesla (TSLA.O) climbed by 10%. The S&P 500 index (.SPX) gained 0.7%.
U.S. futures declined by 0.11% during the early trading session in Asia.
A further drop in consumer confidence, below the neutral 100 threshold since March 2022, has dragged the Australian dollar into the currency markets. This is the longest run since a recession in the early 1990s, which occurred during the period when the early 1990s were.
The Australian dollar, which rebounded on Monday along with increases in the yuan, was last seen trading at $0.6433, 0.04% higher than its previous close. Meanwhile, the value of the New Zealand dollar fell by 0.3% to $0.5918.
Although changes have been subdued as speculators pull down long euro holdings ahead of Thursday’s ECB meeting, the euro reached its highest level versus the dollar in a week. The current pricing indicates that there is around a 56% likelihood that policymakers will keep rates on hold.
In a letter to clients, the analysts at Maybank expressed their belief that “there is a sense that ECB is already done for the cycle.”
Recent PMI readings provide evidence that the economic outlook may weaken, which puts the euro in danger of additional declines. This is made even worse by lingering hopes that the Federal Reserve would boost interest rates further.
The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note remained unchanged at 4.2940%.
On the commodities markets, a barrel of Brent oil remained unchanged at $90.96. On Monday, the price of an ounce of gold remained unchanged at $1,922, while bitcoin continued its downward trend, falling below $25,000 for the first time in three months.
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