After Federal Reserve head Jerome Powell maintained his hawkish tone, Asian equities began Thursday cautiously.
MSCI’s broadest Asia-Pacific ex-Japan index (.MIAPJ0000PUS) fell to 522.93. The index fell almost 2% this week, ending its three-week winning streak.
Japan’s Nikkei was down 0.25%, while Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 index (.AXJO) fell 1.17%. Holidays close China and Hong Kong stock exchanges.
Last week, the Fed kept its benchmark interest rate between 5% to 5.25%, but officials expected rates to rise another half percentage point by year’s end to control inflation.
CME FedWatch only expects a 25 basis point boost next month. Powell told legislators in Washington that two more 25 basis point rate hikes are “a pretty good guess” for the central bank if the economy continues its current path.
Investors eagerly awaited his unsurprising words.
Kevin Cummins, chief economist at NatWest Markets, said Powell’s testimony didn’t give any fresh light on the Fed’s thinking or the anticipated future course for monetary policy. His tone was fairly similar to last week’s press conference and generally hawkish.
The FOMC wants the market to know a rise will be discussed at the next meeting. The Fed’s data-dependent tightening cycle suggests forthcoming data releases could change expectations.”
On Wednesday, Atlanta Federal Reserve President Raphael Bostic warned that raising rates would “needlessly” weaken the U.S. economy.
The statements show that the central bank is debating whether to increase again.
After Wednesday’s strong inflation statistics, investors will focus on the Bank of England’s hike later in the day. The only question is how much.
Economists polled by Reuters last week were unanimous that the BoE would raise rates to 4.75%, their highest since 2008, from 4.5%. Still, inflation statistics moved financial markets to price in a nearly 50% likelihood that the BoE will hike rates by half a percentage point.
“Where other central banks’ concern is now slower-than-hoped easing, the U.K. is still seeing acceleration,” said National Australia Bank economist Taylor Nugent, alluding to soaring U.K. inflation of 8.7% in May.
“The BoE’s conditional guidelines put the weight of proof on data demonstrating more sustained inflation pressures to continue rising bank rate. With salaries statistics last week, they have that in spades.”
Sterling rose 0.01% to $1.2769, near last week’s one-year high of $1.2849. The euro rose 0.06% to $1.0991 after hitting a one-month high of $1.09925. The yen rose 0.11% to 141.70 dollars.
Turkey’s central bank is expected to flip and raise rates, affecting markets. The Turkish lira has plummeted to 23.56 per dollar since last month’s election.
Brent declined 0.08% to $77.06 per barrel, while U.S. crude fell 0.07% to $72.48.
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