Mexico’s headline inflation likely ticked higher in December. According to a Reuters poll released Monday, Mexico’s headline inflation rate probably increased somewhat in December for the second straight month. Still, the closely watched core rate was predicted to keep declining.
For a while, the benchmark interest rate of the Mexican central bank, Banxico, will continue at its all-time high of 11.25% as it waits for inflation to return to the goal range of 3% plus or minus one percentage point. Banxico is still “slightly hawkish” in its monetary policy stance.
In contrast to a figure of 4.32% in November, the consensus projection of 16 analysts released on Monday indicated that annual headline inflation (MXCPHI=ECI) would be 4.55% in December.
After excluding some volatile energy and food costs, core inflation (MXCCPI=ECI) was seen at 5.15%, the lowest level since September 2021 and the 11th consecutive month of decline. In November, it was 5.30 percent.
Mexico’s national statistics office will release official inflation figures for December on Tuesday. In their meeting minutes from last month, the board members of Banxico stated that they anticipated inflation to hit the objective set by the central bank by the second quarter of 2025.
A first interest rate drop is expected in March of this year, according to analysts surveyed by Citibanamex. However, members of the central bank board have cautioned that any such action should not be seen as the start of an easing cycle.
According to a Reuters poll, core inflation increased by 0.50% in December, while consumer prices in Mexico increased by 0.61% monthly. In the previous month, they increased by 0.64% and 0.26%, respectively.
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