Turkey votes in election runoff, Erdogan well-positioned to maintain rule. Sunday’s presidential runoff could extend Tayyip Erdogan’s leadership into a third decade and continue Turkey’s authoritarian agenda, assertive foreign policy, and unorthodox economic governance.

Erdogan, 69, won the first round on May 14 with an approximately five-point margin against Kemal Kilicdaroglu, defying surveys. But, it fell short of the 50% needed to avoid a runoff in a crucial campaign for Turkey and world geopolitics.

His unexpectedly strong performance amid a serious cost of living crisis and a win in parliamentary elections for a coalition of his conservative Islamist-rooted AK Party (AKP), the nationalist MHP, and others encouraged the seasoned campaigner who claims a vote for him is a vote for stability.

After 8 a.m. (0500 GMT), polls ended at 5 p.m. (1400 GMT). Early evening local time should reveal the outcome. Many polling locations were quieter than two weeks ago when turnout was 89%.

Turkey’s foreign policy, which has angered the West by cultivating ties with Russia and Gulf states, will also be decided by the election.

Erdogan voted at a school near his residence on the Asian side of Istanbul at about midday (0900 GMT), shaking hands and conversing with supporters.

He’ll win with God’s help. “He can solve the country’s many problems,” said Nuran, who voted with her three-year-old daughter.
In Ankara, 32-year-old Gulcan Demiroz hoped the vote would bring change and that her friends would migrate abroad, like she was thinking, for a better life.

“This nation deserves better. “We need a collective of minds, not a powerful, cold, distant man who rules alone,” remarked textile worker Gulcan after voting for Kilicdaroglu.

Ankara’s Kilicdaroglu, 74, voted. He leads the Republican People’s Party (CHP), founded by Mustafa Kemal Ataturk. After losing to Erdogan in the first round, his campaign has struggled.

The initial election revealed greater than-expected support for nationalism, a powerful force in Turkish politics toughened by years of warfare with Kurdish militants, an attempted coup in 2016, and the migration of millions of Syrian refugees since the war began in 2011.

According to Interior Ministry figures, Turkey hosts 5 million refugees, including 3.3 million Syrians.

Third-place presidential contender and hardline nationalist Sinan Ogan endorsed Erdogan based on a “non-stop struggle (against) terrorism” against pro-Kurdish groups. He won 5.17%.

After Kilicdaroglu declared he would repatriate immigrants, ZP leader Umit Ozdag announced ZP’s support. As a result, ZP received 2.2% of the parliamentary votes.

After dividing undecided voters, Konda found 52.7% for Erdogan and 47.3% for Kilicdaroglu. Before Ogan and Ozdag endorsed, the survey was conducted May 20-21.

Turkey’s Kurds, around 20% of the population, will vote too.

The pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Democratic Party endorsed Kilicdaroglu in the first round, but after his move to garner nationalist votes, it simply encouraged voters to reject Erdogan’s “one-man regime.”

Turkey’s president has survived the failed coup and corruption allegations because of pious Turks who felt alienated in secular Turkey.

“Turkey has a longstanding democratic tradition and a longstanding nationalist tradition, and right now it’s clearly the nationalist one that’s winning out,” said Nicholas Danforth, Turkey historian and ELIAMEP non-resident fellow. “Erdogan has fused religious and national pride, offering voters aggressive anti-elitism.”

“People know who he is and what his vision for the country is, and it seems a lot of them approve.”

Erdogan has dominated Turkey’s institutions and marginalized liberals and critics. Human Rights Watch’s World Report 2022 claimed Erdogan’s regime had set Turkey’s human rights record back decades.

Erdogan had an advantage in the election campaign since pro-government TV stations and publications dominated the country’s media. His many speeches were broadcast live, while his opponent received limited coverage.

The February earthquakes in southern Turkey killed over 50,000 people and were expected to complicate Erdogan’s election campaign. However, on May 14, his AKP still ruled that region.

With inflation surpassing 85% last October, Erdogan will likely resign since Turks have watched their prosperity, equality, and ability to meet basic needs erode.

Former civil servant Kilicdaroglu promises to reverse several of Erdogan’s domestic, foreign, and economic policies.

He would also return to the legislative system from Erdogan’s executive presidential system, which was narrowly approved in a 2017 vote.