Five people with intimate knowledge of the issue say European Central Bank policymakers are leaning toward a 25 basis point interest rate rise in May, even if alternative options remain on the table.
To combat excessive inflation, the ECB has increased rates by at least 50 basis points at six consecutive meetings, the quickest pace on record. However, the unnamed sources told Reuters that several considerations now encourage increasing caution.
After last month’s financial sector turbulence, uncertainty remains high, and prior rate rises have yet to take root; therefore, less is needed, sources added.
They highlighted that rates are peaking, and this “last mile” is safer to cross in fewer increments. Gradualism was supported by the ECB’s 3% deposit rate, which limits growth.
The sources said the discussion was still open. However, the picture may alter, especially after April inflation data and the ECB’s quarterly bank lending survey, both expected two days before the May 4 meeting.
ECB spokesperson rejected the comment.
Some sources said they would prefer the ECB not offer any advice regarding its June decision, the same way it is keeping its options open now so that policymakers might act on the updated economic predictions expected then.
Some policymakers, especially Southern Europeans who opposed last month’s 50 basis point rise, want no change in May, while a tiny fraction wants another 50 basis point increase.
Few officials have discussed the ECB’s next move’s magnitude.
Klaas Knot of the Netherlands was unsure if 25 or 50 basis points were needed. Slovakia’s Peter Kazimir suggested slowing the ECB’s rises, while Austria’s Robert Holzmann supported another 50 basis point increase.
May and June are marked for a 25 basis point rise, while September is priced for a third.
Rate rises are essential because overall inflation is too high, and core inflation (excluding volatile food and energy costs) might climb for several months, making any halt the wrong signal.
On Wednesday, French central bank president Francois Villeroy de Galhau said a “turnaround in the trajectory of underlying inflation” might prompt the ECB to level interest rates.
The sources noted that wage growth remained a major issue since tight labor markets could easily feed substantial demands from workers who lost many real wages in the preceding two years.
The euro zone’s economy performed according to the ECB’s March estimates based on market expectations of future rate rises. As a result, last month’s financial crisis had little impact.
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